基于Markov-FLUS模型的饶河流域土地利用多情景模拟分析

Land use multi-scenario simulation analysis of Rao River Basin based on Markov-FLUS model

流域在不同发展目标定位下的土地利用需求有所不同,科学合理调控土地利用变化是实现流域土地资源高效利用、生态-社会-经济协调发展的重要基石。以饶河流域为例,基于Markov-FLUS耦合模型综合考虑自然人为两方面,选取12类驱动因子,以2005年土地利用数据为初始值,利用2010、2015年实际土地利用类型数据进行验证改正模型,结合惯性发展、耕地保护、生态优先等情景设置,对2035年饶河流域土地利用进行模拟分析,以满足流域不同发展目标导向下的国土空间优化配置。研究结果表明:(1)该模型在饶河流域的适用性较强,模型总体精度达到98.01%,Kappa系数为0.9627,大于0.80,为今后该区域的土地利用模拟提供了方法借鉴。(2) 3种情景设置基本满足饶河流域不同发展诉求,针对不同发展目标,流域土地利用结构变化明显,其中耕地、建设用地变化显著。(3)惯性发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态优先情景下,建设用地扩张趋势分别为39%、16%、12%,表明落实耕地保护、生态优先政策需要加强约束建设用地扩张,进一步调整用地结构以提高土地利用效率。综上所述,基于Markov-FLUS模型对饶河流域土地利用进行多情景模拟,可以为流域未来国土空间规划及社会经济发展决策提供基础支撑和多重视角,对土地资源高效利用和生态环境保护具有重要意义。

For watersheds with different land use needs under different development goal orientations, scientific and reasonable regulation of land use changes is an important cornerstone to achieve efficient land resource utilization and coordinated ecological-social-economic development in watersheds. Taking the Rao River Basin as an example, based on the Markov-FLUS coupled model with comprehensive consideration of both natural and anthropogenic aspects, 12 types of driving factors are selected, with 2005 land use data as the initial value, and actual land use type data from 2010 and 2015 are used to validate and correct the model, combined with scenario settings such as inertia development, cultivated land protection, and ecological priority. The simulation analysis of land use in the 2035 Rao River Basin is carried out to meet the optimal spatial allocation of national land under different development goal orientations of the basin. The results show that:(1) The model has strong applicability in the Rao River Basin, with an overall accuracy of 98.01% and the Kappa coefficient of 0.9627, which is greater than 0.80, providing a methodological reference for future land use simulations in the region.(2) The three scenario settings basically meet the different development demands of the Rao River Basin, and the land use structure of the basin changes significantly for different development goals, with the most significant changes in cultivated land and construction land under each scenario. It is mainly concentrated in Changjiang District, Zhushan District, Fuliang County, Leping City, Dexing City, and scattered in Poyang County and Wannian County. Under the inertia development scenario, construction land expands rapidly, with an increase of nearly 40%;under the cultivated land protection scenario, cultivated land shows the only positive growth, but the increase is only 1%;under the ecological priority scenario, forest land, grassland, and water area show increases at the same time, with 0.03%, 0.4%, and 1%, respectively.(3) Under the inertia development scenario, the cultivated land protection scenario and the ecological priority scenario, the trend of construction land expansion is 39%, 16%, and 12%, respectively, indicating that the implementation of the cultivated land protection and ecological priority policies needs to strengthen constraints on construction land expansion and further adjust the land use structure to improve land use efficiency. In summary, multi-scenario simulation of land use in Rao River Basin based on the Markov-FLUS model can provide basic support and multiple perspectives for future territorial spatial planning and socio-economic development decisions, and is of great significance for the efficient use of land resources and ecological environmental protection.