后小康时代防返贫预警机制的构建基于“事故链理论”的思考

The Construction of the Early-warning Mechanism of Preventing Returning to Poverty in the Post Well-off Era Thinking Based on“Accident Chain Theory”

目前,我国虽然实现了全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标,绝对贫困得以基本消除,但是,很可能进入一个“相对贫困”的新社会状态。相对贫困具有强韧性、多维性、动态性等特征。构建系统高效的小康社会防返贫机制,使其成为支撑全面小康社会公平与幸福体系的系统工具,具有重要的现实意义。文章基于“事故链理论”,对返贫生成与突变机理进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了构建防返贫预警机制,以期为我国“后小康”时代的精准帮扶与保小康行动提供理论支撑。

At present,although China has achieved the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way and the absolute poverty has been basically eliminated,it is likely to enter a new social state of“relative poverty”.Relative poverty has the characteristics of strong resilience,multidimensional and dynamic.It is of great practical significance to build a systematic and efficient mechanism of preventing returning to poverty in a well-off society and make it a systematic tool to support the equity and happiness system of a well-off society in an all-round way.Based on the“accident chain theory”,this paper analyzes the generation and mutation mechanism of returning to poverty,and puts forward the construction of early-warning mechanism of preventing returning to poverty,in order to provide theoretical support for the accurate assistance and action to ensure a well-off society in the post well-off era.