我国农村相对贫困标准估计与贫困动态

Estimating the Relative Poverty Line and Poverty Dynamics in Rural China

我国扶贫战略已经由解决绝对贫困开始转向瞄准相对贫困,因此,探讨相对贫困标准的建立以及如何识别相对贫困人口也即成为这一战略转型下的前瞻性研究工作。本文引入一种新的方法来估计相对贫困标准,即借助模糊理论以及非参数结构变化检验方法,以收入分布数据自身驱动的方式来客观估计相对贫困标准。使用中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证发现,2013年、2015年及2017年估计的农村相对贫困标准依次为农村家庭年人均纯收入3313.55元、3938.81元和4458.57元。与现有方法相比,这一结果显著低于使用收入均值的40%比例估计的相对贫困标准,但与收入中位数40%比例的结果相近。在相对贫困标准下,农村脱贫人口也呈现上升趋势,但收入波动的几率及幅度仍然较大,因此,建立平稳有序的收入增长机制对于战略转型后的农村低收入人口帮扶具有突出意义。

China’s poverty alleviation strategy is about to shift from solving absolute poverty to targeting relative poverty.Therefore,it is a forward-looking work to explore the establishment of relative poverty line and how to identify the relative poor population.This paper introduces a new method to estimate the relative poverty line.Specifically,with the help of fuzzy theory and nonparametric structural change test method,this paper objectively estimates the relative poverty line with self-driven income distribution data.Using the data of the CFPS,it finds that the estimated rural relative poverty lines in 2013,2015 and 2017 are 3313.55 yuan,3938.81 yuan and 4458.57 yuan,respectively.Compared with the existing methods,this result is significantly lower than the relative poverty standard estimated by using the 40%of the average income,but it is similar to that of the 40%of the median income of the population.With the relative poverty line,the population out of poverty shows an upward trend,but the probability and range of income fluctuation are still large.Therefore,it is of great significance to establish a stable and orderly income growth mechanism for rural poverty alleviation after strategic transformation.