政府投资基金可以引导社会资本投向吗?——基于拔靴分样本滚动窗口因果关系检验的新证据

Can Government Investment Funds Guide Social Capital Investment?--New Evidence for Causality Test of Rolling Window Based on Boot-Pulling Samples

随着我国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展阶段,为鼓励企业创新发展,我国设立政府投资基金引导社会资本投资创新创业企业,以缓解其创新发展的融资困境。为探究政府投资基金引导功能的实现情况,本文基于拔靴分样本滚动窗口因果关系检验的方法,运用2014年1月至2021年8月政府投资基金设立与种子轮、天使轮科技型企业创投项目的月度数据进行研究。实证检验发现:(1)在部分区间内,政府投资基金能够发挥“领头羊”作用,引导社会资本投向创新创业企业,也存在其他区间,政府投资基金的引导作用并不显著,说明政府投资基金的引导效应具有时变性特征。(2)投向创新创业企业社会资本的增加在部分区间使得政府投资基金数量减少,也存在时变特征。研究结论对关于政府投资基金引导社会资本投资的公共政策优化提供了经验证据。

As China’s economy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development,in order to encourage innovation and development of enterprises,China has set up government investment funds to guide social capital to invest in innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises in order to alleviate the financing difficulties of their innovation and development.In order to explore the implementation of the guiding function of government investment funds,this paper uses the monthly data of the establishment of government investment funds and the venture capital projects of science and technology enterprises with seed wheels and angel wheels from January 2014 to August 2021 based on the method of rolling window causality test of boots and sub-samples.The empirical test shows that:(1)In some intervals,the government investment fund can play a leader role in guiding social capital to invest in innovative and entrepreneurial enterprises,and there are other intervals,the guiding role of government investment funds is not obvious,indicating that the guiding effect of government investment funds has time-varying characteristics.(2)The increase in social capital of innovation and entrepreneurship enterprises in some intervals reduces the number of government investment funds,and there is also a time-varying feature.The research conclusion provides empirical evidence for the public policy optimization of government investment funds guiding social capital investment.