金融周期、收入差距与居民消费——基于收入来源和收入群体视角

Financial Cycle,Income Gap and Consumption:From the View of Income Sources and Income Groups

文章结合金融周期理论分析了金融周期对居民消费的直接效应和间接调节效应,并利用1999~2020年省级面板数据考察中国居民消费不足的原因。研究表明:(1)消费顺金融周期变动,正向金融冲击增加居民消费支出,负向金融冲击减少居民消费支出。(2)收入差距不仅抑制居民消费支出,而且对消费顺金融周期性存在显著负面调节效应。收入差距会削弱正向金融冲击对消费支出的促进效应,加剧负向金融冲击对消费支出的削减效应。(3)从全国层面看,城乡经营性、财产性收入差距的负面调节效应更大;分区域看,城乡工资性、经营性收入差距对中部负面调节效应更大,城乡财产性、转移性收入差距对东部负面调节效应更大。(4)城镇中高、中等和中低收入群体之间收入差距的负面调节效应更大。降低收入差距对消费顺金融周期性负面调节效应进而促进居民消费支出和消费持续恢复应精准收入来源、收入群体和区域施策。

With applicating financial cycle theory,this paper analyzes the direct and indirect moderating effects of the financial cycle on consumption,and explores the reasons for the insufficient consumption in China using the provincial panel data from 1999 to 2020.The research finds firstly that consumption changes in line with the financial cycle,with positive financial shocks increasing household consumption expenditure and negative financial shocks reducing consumption.Secondly income gap not only inhibits consumption,but also has significant negative moderating effects on consumption pro-financial cyclicality.Thirdly,at national level,the negative moderating effects of urban-rural business and property income gap are greater.In regional perspective,urban-rural wage and business income gap have greater negative moderating effects on the central region,while urban-rural property and transfer income gap have greater negative moderating effects on the eastern region.Finally,income gap among upper middle,middle and lower middle-income groups in urban areas have greater negative moderating effects.Narrowing the income gap and improving consumption should target income sources,income groups,and regions in policy design.