就业结构与产业结构失衡问题研究

Research on the Imbalance between Employment Structure and Industrial Structure

文章使用1990~2020年宏观数据,对就业结构与产业结构失衡状况进行测度,继而探究其影响因素。结果表明,中国三次产业结构偏离度有所收窄,三次产业结构偏离度均对就业结构与产业结构失衡产生显著影响,其中,第一产业影响最大,第三产业次之,第二产业最小。分因素看,经济发展、人力资本水平提高和老龄化程度加深会加剧就业结构与产业结构的失衡,且作用依次递减;而城镇化、市场化、投资与消费增长和科技进步会改善就业结构与产业结构的失衡状况,且作用依次递减。文章认为,要化解就业结构与产业结构失衡,须以解决第一产业劳动力冗余及配置低效为突破口,抓住“十四五”时期乃至2030年前后的关键时间窗口期,科学分析,综合施策,充分发挥有利因素作用,最大程度扭转不利因素的影响。

Using the macro data from 1990 to 2020,this paper measures the imbalance between employment structure and industrial structure,and then explores related influencing factors.The results show that the deviation degree of national structure of three strata of industry narrowed,and structural deviation degrees of three strata of industry have significant impact on the imbalance between employment structure and industrial structure.The impact of primary industry is the greatest,that of secondary industry is the smallest,and that of the tertiary industry is between.In terms of factors,economic development,improvement of human capital level,and extent of aging exacerbate the imbalance between employment structure and industrial structure,and the effects decrease successively.While urbanization development,marketization degree improvement,growth of investment and consumption and the technological progress reduce the imbalance,the effects decrease in turn.To better coordinate the industrial structure and employment structure,it is necessary to solve labor redundancy and inefficient allocation of the primary industry as a breakthrough in order to seize the key time window during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and even around 2030.We should scientifically analyze,comprehensively implement policies,give full play to the role of favorable factors,and do best to reverse the negative effects.