大规模突发公共卫生事件下衍生社会风险的类型与防控策略

Types and Preventive Strategies of Derivative Social Risks under Large-scale Public Health Emergencies

衍生社会风险往往会成为大规模突发公共卫生事件的恶劣社会后果,对其进行梳理分析有利于提炼衍生社会风险的类型及其扩散路径,有助于构建针对衍生社会风险的防控策略。本文采用多维情景空间分析法对所收集的107起公共卫生事件进行拆分和要素整合,提炼出公共卫生事件演化过程中的33个要素。其中,依据要素及其相互之间的关系将衍生社会风险归纳为社会生理风险、社会心理风险、社会行为风险、社会应对风险以及社会环境风险五大类型。依据典型案例分析和风险扩散轨迹,本文将衍生社会风险的扩散路径归纳为“连点成线”的链条式、“积线成面”的树状式和“组面成体”的网格式三种,并分别提出相应的防控策略,以期为大规模突发公共卫生事件衍生社会风险的有效防控提供思路。

Derivative social risks often become the adverse social consequences of large-scale public health emergencies.Carding and analysis of them will help to refine the types of derivative social risks and their diffusion paths,and help to build preventive strategies for derivative social risks.In this paper,a multi-dimensional scenario analysis method is used to split and integrate the 107 public health events collected,and 33 elements in the evolution of public health events are extracted.Among them,based on the relationship between the elements and each other,the derivative social risks are categorized into five types:social physiological risk,social psychological risk,social behavior risk,social coping risk and social environmental risk.According to the typical case analysis and risk diffusion trajectory,the diffusion path of derivative social risk is classified into three types:chain type of“connecting points into line”,tree type of“product line into plane”and net format of“group surface”.The paper also proposes corresponding prevention and control strategies in order to provide ideas for the effective prevention and control of social risks derived from large-scale public health emergencies.