疫情冲击下中国出口逆势增长的动因与策略

The Motivation and Strategy of China’s Export Counter-Trend Growth Under the Impact of COVID-19

新冠疫情割裂了国际分工网络,全球出口贸易骤降,而中国出口贸易则超预期地逆势增长。文章利用联合国贸易数据库(UN Comtrade)提供的国家-商品贸易数据,探析疫情冲击下中国出口逆势增长这一事实。基于出口增长动因分析发现,需求端的出口市场多元化,供给端的国内供应链的产品“性价比”优势、供应链体系的相对稳定性,供需连通网络方面的物流体系优势,“三维”发力,构成了中国出口逆势增长的基本动因。此外,制度优势对疫情冲击下的出口贸易增长也发挥了不可替代的作用。本文揭示了新冠疫情冲击下中国出口逆势增长的原因,对稳定外贸基本盘具有现实意义。

The COVID-19 pandemic has fragmented the international division of labor network, with global export trade plummeting, while China’s export trade has grown more than expected against the trend. This paper uses the country-commodity trade data provided by United Nations Comtrade Database(UN Comtrade) to explore the fact that China’s export grew against the trend under the shock of the pandemic. Based on the analysis of export growth drivers, it is found that China’s export market on the demand side is diversified, the domestic supply chain on the supply side has the advantage of “cost performance” of products, the relative stability of the supply chain system, the advantages of the logistics system in the supply and demand connection network, which all of them made efforts from the “three-dimensional” and contributed to the contrarian growth of China’s exports under the impact of the pandemic. In addition, institutional advantages have also played an irreplaceable role in the growth of export trade under the impact of the pandemic. This paper reveals the reasons for the counter-trend growth of China’s export under the impact of COVID-19,which is of practical significance for stabilizing the fundamentals of China’s foreign trade.