土地供给偏移政策在债券市场的无心之失——来自2001—2017年省际面板数据的证据

Land Supply and Financial Deepening in Bond Market: An Assessment of China’s Inland-favoring Land Supply Policies

旨在平衡地区间经济发展的土地供给偏移政策可能存在扭曲债券市场资金配置效率的意外之失。本文基于2001—2017年债券和土地出让市场的省级层面数据,通过实证研究发现欠发达地区土地出让对债券市场金融资源的干预程度均远高于全国平均水平。欠发达地区土地出让面积每增长1%,债券市场金融深化程度平均降低0.14%。与此同时,欠发达地区债务“借新还旧”的现象超过发达地区,但呈现逐年递减的趋势。土地供给偏移政策间接抑制了欠发达地区债券市场价格机制的发挥,使得欠发达地区更加依赖土地抵押的举债投资增长模式,不利于经济高质量发展。鉴于实证结果,笔者建议作为掌握建设用地分配指标的中央政府应对建设用地指标进行适当的调整以实现全国层面资源配置效率的提高,中央政府有必要使紧缺的土地资源与地区经济总量、人口发展需求相匹配。

The land supply deviation policy for balancing regional economic development may have the unexpected loss in the bond market.Based on the provincial data of bond and land transfer market from 2001 to 2017,we find out the intervention degree of land transfer in underdeveloped areas is much higher than the national level.For every 1% increase in land transfer in underdeveloped areas, the financial deepening degree of bond market decreases by 0.14% on average.At the same time, the phenomenon of “borrowing new debts to repay old debts” in underdeveloped areas exceeds the national average level, but it shows a decreasing trend year by year.The policy of land supply deviation indirectly distorts the price mechanism of bond market in underdeveloped areas, which makes underdeveloped areas relying on the growth mode of debt investment with land mortgage.It is not conducive to high-quality economic development.In view of the empirical results, the allocation of land supply should be proper to match the regional economic level and population development.