基于模糊综合评价的深部巷道破坏定量风险评估

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Deep Tunnel Failure Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

深部金属矿地质条件和开采过程的复杂性导致巷道破坏时空分布复杂.以阿舍勒铜矿深部采区为研究对象,综合考虑地质赋存条件、开采影响和微震监测数据三方面的评价指标开展巷道围岩破坏风险定量评估研究.采用熵权法确定了不同评价指标的权重分配,权重占比前五的评价指标均为微震参数,其权重占比和超过80%,表明微震参数在巷道破坏风险评估中占主导作用.基于模糊综合评价方法的巷道破坏样本数据的评估准确率接近90%,能够实现大范围区域性巷道破坏风险定量评估,满足深部金属矿山区域性地压灾害防控与系统性开采过程优化调控的需要.

The spatial and temporal distribution of tunnel failure is very complex due to geologic heterogeneity and mining processes variability in deep metal mines.The quantitative risk assessment for deep tunnel failure was performed at the Ashele copper mine,and the risk assessment was completed by comprehensively considering the evaluation indexes of geological conditions,mining process,and microseismic data.A weighted distribution of evaluation indexes was determined by implementation of an entropy weight method.The results showed that the five largest weights of the model are attributed to microseismic(MS)indexes,accounting for more than 80%of the total weight,which indicates that the MS indexes play a dominant role in the risk assessment of tunnel failure.The evaluation accuracy rate of tunnel failure sample data based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is close to 90%.Which can realize the quantitative risk assessment for regional deep tunnel failure,and meet the needs of the prevention and control of regional ground pressure hazards as well as the systematic optimization of mining process in deep metal mines.