水污染危机事件风险感知的特征:基于网络大数据的分析

Characteristics of Risk Perception of Water Pollution Incidents:Analysis Based on Network Big Data

本文基于问题解决情境理论、RISP模型和风险评价模型,运用网络大数据研究水污染危机事件导致中国民众风险感知的动态变化和内容特征,并选取镇江水污染、靖江水污染和常州外国语学校污染等三起事件作为典型案例进行研究。结果显示,民众的风险感知会在事件发生后迅速跳上高位,随后逐渐下降,下降速度与事件的发展演化情况相关,风险感知的动态变化总体上符合指数分布;三起事件风险感知的内容特征主要表现为机构信任,尤其是对地方政府信任,但事件本身的风险感知占比不高。因此,建议政府部门及时披露权威信息、提高危机应对能力和强化政府公信力等,最大限度地降低民众的消极情绪,避免民众出现恐慌心理。

Based on Situational Theory of Problem Solving,RISP Model and Model of Risk Evaluation,the paper uses network big data to study dynamic change and features of risk perception caused by water pollution incidents.The paper selects three incidents as typical cases to study.The three incidents are Zhenjiang water pollution incident,Jingjiang water pollution incident and Changzhou Foreign Languages School pollution incident.The results show that risk perception jumps to a high level quickly when the incident happens and then declines gradually.The decline rate is related to the development and evolution of the incident.The dynamic change of risk perception is generally subject to the exponential distribution.The features of risk perception of the three incidents are mainly manifested in trust of institutions,especially in trust of local governments.The proportion of risk perception of the incident itself is not high.Therefore,it is recommended that government departments should disclose authoritative information in a timely manner,improve capacity to face crises and strengthen the government’s credibility.Government departments should also reduce people’s negative emotions greatly and avoid panic.