减税能够有效推动中国经济动能重塑吗?

Can Tax Reduction Effectively Promote Reshaping Economic Drivers?

减税既是积极财政政策的重要组成部分,也是供给侧结构性改革“降成本”的关键措施。基于2002-2019年数据,剖析自加入WTO以来我国主要税种减税对经济动能重塑的影响,研究发现:(1)增值税减税以产业结构合理化为渠道,全面推进经济动能多维重塑;企业所得税减税以创新资源优化配置及人力资本结构高级化为媒介,重点聚焦新动能培育,且“人力资本结构高级化”与“创新资源优化配置”之间存在次序性逻辑,企业所得税减税需要首先解决人力资本错配问题,而后才能释放创新活力。(2)北方省份新动能培育的正向激励作用主要源于增值税减税,而南方省份则主要得益于企业所得税减税。(3)增值税减税在经济震荡期和经济减速期并不利于经济动力平稳换挡,直至改革期才开始释放正向效能;企业所得税减税的经济驱动激励作用自减速期开始显现,积极培育支撑未来发展的经济驱动。(4)财政自给率低的区域能够通过增值税减税获得更为强劲的经济动能重塑表现,财政自给率高的区域企业所得税减税新动能培育效能释放更为充分。(5)增值税和企业所得税在减速期会扩大经济动能重塑差距、加速区域分化,其余时段则有助于实现经济动能重塑进程趋同,契合协同发展的根本要求。

Tax cut is not only an important part of proactive fiscal policy, but also a key measure to reduce cost in supply-side structure reform. Based on the data from 2002 to 2019, this paper analyzes the impact of major tax cuts on China’s efforts of finding new economic growth drivers since our entry into the WTO. The findings are as follows.(1) VAT reduction aims to take multi-dimensional approaches to seek new economic growth drivers by means of rationalizing industrial structure. The corporate income tax reduction focuses on cultivating new growth drivers through optimizing innovation resource allocation and improving human capital structure, and there is a sequential logic between the two approaches. The corporate income tax reduction needs to first solve the problem of human capital mismatch to bring into play the power of innovation.(2) The incentive effect of new economic growth driver cultivation in northern China mainly comes from VAT reduction, while southern provinces mainly benefit from corporate income tax reduction.(3) VAT reduction is not conducive to the smooth shift of economic growth drivers during economic upheaval and slowdown, and its positive effect does not show until the reform period. The incentive effect on economy of corporate income tax reduction begins to show during economic slowdown, and actively cultivates new economic drivers for future development.(4) VAT reduction exerts a stronger driving force in regions with low fiscal self-sufficiency rate while the corporate income tax reduction is more effective in cultivating new growth drivers in regions with high fiscal self-sufficiency rate.(5) VAT and corporate income tax widen the gap in cultivating new growth drivers and increase difference across regions during economic slowdown, while in other economic periods they help achieve common development in the process of cultivating new economic drivers, which is in line with the fundamental requirements of collaborative development.