缅甸危机长期化及其对东盟的影响

The Prolonged Myanmar Crisis and Its Influence on ASEAN

2021年缅甸军方重掌国家权力以来,在国内政治危机、民族和解危机和人道主义三重危机交织的背景下,缅甸危机已经呈现长期化态势。从缅甸的角度而言,缅甸军方控制国内局势的能力是决定其与东盟合作意愿的关键。在暂时难以解决国内危机的前提下,缅甸军方难以有效回应东盟的诉求。从东盟的角度出发,东盟坚持应对缅甸危机的根本动因在于:一是缅甸内部危机一时难以化解,对地区秩序的冲击及东盟整体进程的影响将持续存在;二是缅甸问题的热度虽然有所下降,但东盟仍然将缅甸问题视为对东盟信誉、团结及中心地位的挑战,因而不会放弃继续解决缅甸问题的努力。规范层面上,缅甸问题亦再次引发了有关东盟不干涉原则适应性的争论。未来东盟将着眼于控制缅甸问题对东盟深入推进一体化进程的影响,避免其干扰东盟的其他合作议程。东盟将更加注重内部协调,从总体上尽力维护东盟对缅的一致立场。同时,东盟在缅甸问题上坚持其主导地位,防止域外力量的不当介入。基于“东盟方式”的实践经验,东盟也将借解决缅甸问题的契机进一步探索提高应对内部危机能力的路径。

Since Tatmadaw(The Military)regained the power of the country in 2021,Myanmar crisis has shown a prolonged trend in the context of domestic political crisis,national reconciliation crisis and humanitarian crisis.From Myanmar's perspective,the military's ability to control the situation at home is key to determining its willingness to cooperate with ASEAN.Given the inability to solve the domestic crisis,it is difficult for Tatmadaw to effectively and positively respond to the demands of ASEAN.From the perspective of ASEAN,there are twofold fundamental motivations for ASEAN's long-term response to the Myanmar crisis.First,in the long term,Myanmar's internal crisis can't be resolved,and its impact on the regional order and ASEAN's overall process will continue to exist.Second,although the Myanmar issue has become less popular,ASEAN still regards it as a challenge to ASEAN's reputation,unity and centrality,and will not give up efforts to continue to deal with the Myanmar issue.Normatively,the Myanmar issue has once again triggered a debate on the adaptability of the principle of non-interference.Future response of ASEAN to the Myanmar issue will focus on controlling the impact of the Myanmar issue on ASEAN's in-depth integration process and avoiding its interference with other ASEAN agendas.ASEAN will pay more attention to internal coordination and do its best to maintain the consistency of ASEAN's position on Myanmar in general.At the same time,ASEAN will continue to insist on ASEAN-led response to Myanmar issues and prevent improper intervention by outside forces.ASEAN will also take the opportunity to dealing with Myanmar issue to further enhance capacity-building of coping with internal crises and explore ways to reform the“ASEAN Way”.