阿富汗塔利班的崛起及其前景--基于部落政治文化视角的解读

The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Its Prospects:A Perspective on Tribal Political Culture

部落是塔利班发展壮大的基本社会基础。作为阿富汗部落社会的主体,普什图部落以普什图瓦里为核心,形成了独特的荣誉文化、自治传统、庇护文化与势头文化等部落政治文化,并深刻影响着阿富汗国家的兴衰更迭。2001年后,在西方国家的支持下,阿富汗建立了“西方式”的民主政治结构,但与该国原生的部落政治文化极不适应,国家重建失败。相反,塔利班通过迎合部落政治文化,获得源源不断的部落支持,重新崛起并最终夺取政权。事实上,特定的政治结构需要匹配相应的政治文化才能有效运作,特有的政治文化也是与之契合的政治结构长期培育的结果。虽然塔利班在阿富汗重新掌权,阿富汗局势充满不确定性,但部落政治文化始终是阿富汗恒定不变的“文化底色”。塔利班新政权利用部落政治文化稳步推进阿富汗重建,不仅考验塔利班的政治智慧,也需要国际社会的倾力帮助。

The tribes are the basic social foundation for Taliban's growth and development.As the main body of Afghan tribal society,the Pashtun tribes have formed a unique tribal political culture with the Pashtunwali as the core,forming a unique culture of honor,autonomy,patronage and momentum,which has profoundly influenced the rise and fall of the Afghan state.After 2001,with the support of western countries,Afghanistan established a“western-style”democratic political structure,but it was so incompatible with the state's indigenous tribal political culture and then the national reconstruction ultimately failed.In contrast,it was by catering to tribal political culture and gaining a steady stream of tribal support that the Taliban reemerged and eventually seized power.In fact,in order to function effectively,a particular political structure needs to be matched with a corresponding political culture,and a particular political culture is the result of the long-term cultivation of a political structure that fits it.Although the Taliban has regained power in Afghanistan and the prospect of national reconstruction is full of uncertainty,tribal political culture has remained a constant“cultural undercurrent”in Afghanistan.The new Taliban regime needs to make full use of the tribal political culture to steadily advance the reconstruction of Afghanistan,which will not only test the political wisdom of the Taliban,but also require the full support of the international community.