基于链路预测的智能纺织品技术融合趋势研究

Research on the trend of technology convergence for smart textile based on link prediction

技术融合是传统产业实现技术升级的重要手段。本文基于德温特专利数据库中的15125项智能纺织品发明专利,运用技术生命周期、社会网络、链路预测等方法,从技术领域发展前景、技术融合应用现状、融合机会预测三个方面,对跨领域技术融合在智能纺织领域的发展现状和趋势进行了深入研究。结果表明:智能纺织领域正处于技术发展成熟期,该领域发明专利预计将达21667项,发展前景良好;跨领域技术融合在智能纺织领域的应用日益广泛,其中数字计算机是智能纺织领域开展跨领域技术融合的重点,已与家用电器等技术领域建立稳定的融合关系;分层产品、电话和数据传输系统等技术领域在后续的技术创新活动中将扮演重要角色。

The decreasing demographic dividend and rising manufacturing costs have gradually weakened China’s competitive advantage in the international textile market,but the rise of smart textiles provides a new opportunity for the development of China’s textile industry.Technological innovation gradually becomes a key factor affecting the development of the textile industry.In order to meet ever-changing market demands,technological innovation develops in the direction of diversification and compounding.Technology convergence as a technological innovation method that can realize technical cooperation in multiple fields is widely used in the textile field.In order to help textile enterprises capture technological development hot spots and enhance competitiveness,this research deeply analyzes the application status and the technological development prospect of cross-domain technology convergence in the smart textile field based on 15125 smart textile invention patents in the Derwent Innovation Index.This paper applies the technology life cycle to judge the development stage of the smart textile field.It takes the stage characteristic of the technology life cycle as the basis for dividing data sets,and extracts Derwent Class Codes of invention patents which have realized cross-domain technology convergence in each data set as the follow-up research data.The co-occurrence network of each data set is drawn based on the social network theory,and the difference between each network’s overall network indicators is used as the basis for judging the application prospect of cross-domain technology convergence in the smart textile field.Then,this paper uses the link prediction algorithm based on local similarity index to define the main technology convergence relationships of each stage.The difference of each stage’s main technology convergence relationships is used to judge the evolutionary trend of technology convergence’s hot spots,and the value of local similarity index for the last stage is used to predict new technology convergence relationships.Results show that the smart textile field is in a mature stage of technological development with promising development prospects,and the number of smart textile invention patents is expected to reach 21667.Cross-domain technology convergence is increasingly used in the smart textile field.Digital Computers is the focus of cross-domain technology convergence in the smart textile field,and it has established stable technology convergence relationships with other technical fields such as domestic electric appliances and industrial electric equipment.Enterprises can increase investment to strengthen technology convergence relationships between these technical fields.Layered products,telephone and data transmission systems,etc.will play an important role in subsequent technological innovation activities,and enterprises should fully consider their own development status and anti-risk capabilities before making R&D decisions in these technical fields.In the information age,in the face of rapidly changing market demands,a keen awareness of market trends can help enterprises seize development opportunities and achieve success.Based on the smart textile invention patents in the Derwent Innovation Index,this paper analyzes the technological development trend of the smart textile field,hoping to provide reference for textile enterprises.