经济政策不确定性、对外直接投资与全球价值链攀升

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Global Value Chain Climbing

通过对外直接投资能否推动企业攀升全球价值链(GVC)中高端,是开放的中国经济高质量发展亟需破解的问题。在世界百年未有之大变局的时代背景下,不确定性的冲击深刻影响着企业对外投资的战略和决策。本文基于2007—2019年中国行业层面的对外直接投资和投入产出表数据,引入国内国际经济政策不确定性变量,综合考察经济政策不确定冲击下,对外直接投资是否促进中国企业实现全球价值链升级。研究结果显示,中国对外直接投资产生了显著的GVC降级效应,世界经济政策不确定性的调节作用强化了这一负效应。分行业看,服务业对外直接投资显著拖累了中国全球价值链升级,且中国经济政策的调整波动对制造业攀升GVC起到了明显的抑制作用。因此,应当提升中国企业对外直接投资的质量和绩效,完善对外投资的经济宏观调控政策工具,积极布局自主安全可控的区域价值链,构筑促进和提升国内大循环的缓冲地带和外部环境。

Whether foreign direct investment can promote enterprises to climb the mid-high end of the global value chain(GVC)through outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)is an issue that needs to be solved urgently for China’s open high-quality economic development.Under the background of unprecedented changes in the world in a century,the impact of uncertainties profoundly affects the strategy and decision-making of enterprises’OFDI.Based on China’s OFDI and the input-output table at the industry level,this paper introduces the uncertainty variables of domestic and international economic policies to comprehensively examine whether China’s OFDI promotes enterprises to upgrade the GVC under the impact of economic policy uncertainties.The results show that China’s OFDI produced a significant GVC downgrade effect,and the regulatory effect of world economic policy uncertainties strengthened this negative effect.In terms of different industries,OFDI in the service industry significantly dragged down the upgrade of China’s GVC position,and the regulation of domestic economic policies significantly restrained GVC climbing in manufacturing.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the quality and performance of enterprises’OFDI,to optimize macro-control economic policy tools for outward foreign investment,to construct independent,safe and controllable regional value chains(RVCs),and to build a buffer zone and benign external environment to promote the domestic economic circulation.