我国玉米进出口市场势力的变化分析

Analysis of the Changes in the Power of China’s Maize Import and Export Market

从临时收储政策到“价补分离”政策,玉米市场化改革逐步深入。为了测度我国玉米在国际进出口市场上是否存在市场势力,本文利用“看市定价”模型,基于理论和实证视角分析玉米支持政策变化前后我国玉米在国际市场上的定价权。回归结果表明,在实行玉米“价补分离”政策后,汇率对我国玉米进出口价格的影响显著,政策对我国玉米进出口价格的影响为负向。在玉米“临储政策”改革后,我国的玉米进出口价格下降,同时在玉米出口市场上呈现出较弱的市场定价权。因此,我国仍需从降低玉米生产成本、提高玉米生产品质、持续推动政策实施以及完善玉米种植保险等方面入手,增大可获取利润的空间,从而获得更有利的贸易条件。

From the temporary collection and storage policy to the“Price Compensation Separation”policy,the reform of maize marketization has been deepened gradually.In order to measure the existence of market power in the international import and export market of China’s maize,this paper analyzes the pricing power of China’s maize in the international market along with the change of price support policy for maize based on theoretical and empiri⁃cal perspectives by using the“Pricing to Market”model.The regression results showed that after the implementa⁃tion of the“Price Compensation Separation”policy,the exchange rate significantly impacts on China’s maize im⁃port and export prices,and policy has negative influence on China’s maize import and export prices.After the re⁃form of the maize“Temporary Purchasing and Storage”policy,the import and export prices of maize in China fell,at the same time in the maize export market,showed a weak market pricing power.Therefore,China still needs to re⁃duce the production cost of maize,improve the quality of maize production,continue to promote the implementation of policies and improve maize cultivation insurance to increase the profitable space,so as to obtain more dominant terms of trade.