中国产业结构升级与旅游效率的关联效应研究——基于pvar模型的分析

A Study on the Correlation Effect between the Upgrading of Industrial Structure and Tourism Efficiency in China

基于2005—2018年中国省域面板数据,运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,分别对全国、东部、中部和西部地区产业结构升级与旅游效率之间的互动机制进行分析。实证结果表明:在全国范围内产业结构升级对旅游效率有显著的正向影响,旅游效率对产业结构升级未起到带动作用,在东部地区尤为明显;在中部地区产业结构显著提升了旅游效率,旅游效率显著负向影响产业结构;在西部地区不存在明显的互动效应。政府在政策制定时要充分认识到产业结构升级对旅游效率的重要调节作用,同时还需引进技术要素来实现产业结构高级化和提升旅游效率。

Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2005-2018,a panel vector auto regressive(PVAR) model was used to analyze the interaction mechanism between the upgrading of industrial structure and tourism efficiency in the whole nation,as well as in eastern,central and western regions respectively.The empirical results show that there is a significant positive effect of the upgrading of industrial structure on tourism efficiency at the national level,and tourism efficiency has not played a driving role in the upgrading of industrial structure,especially in the eastern region;in the central region the industrial structure has significantly improved tourism efficiency,and tourism efficiency significantly affected the industrial structure in a negative way;in the western region there is no significant interaction effect.The government should be fully aware of the important regulating role of the upgrading of industrial structure on tourism efficiency when making policies,and also introduce technological elements to advance industrial structure and to improve tourism efficiency.