中国经济增长与就业关系的空间差异性研究

Research on the Spatial Difference of the Relationship between China’s Economic Growth and Employment

在中国经济由高速增长转向高质量发展阶段的背景下,如何实现区域经济增长与就业关系的协调不仅关系到就业形势的总体稳定,也是我国经济高质量发展的内在要求。本文从空间溢出视角,在检验经济增长与就业空间相关性的基础上,深入分析了经济增长与就业关系的空间差异性,研究发现:从全国层面看,经济增长对就业的影响显著为正,且存在对就业的正向空间溢出效应;从区域层面看,经济增长对就业的带动作用存在空间异质性,东部城市经济增长对就业的带动作用最大,而东北地区经济增长对就业的带动作用相对较小,中部城市和西部城市经济增长对就业的带动作用相当;中国经济增长对就业的溢出效应也存在空间异质性,东部地区的直接效应和总效应最大,而西部和东北地区经济增长对就业存在负向的间接效应;不同区域内技术进步、产业结构升级、人力资本、资本投入、政府干预和收入分配的差异是造成区域经济增长与就业关系非一致性的原因。各地区要进一步推动就业扩容提质,同时因地制宜调整就业政策,推进区域就业协调发展。

In the context of China’s economy shifting from high growth to high-quality development stage, the imbalance in the relationship between regional economic growth and employment is not only detrimental to the overall stability of employment situation, but also does not meet the inherent requirements of China’s high-quality economic development. Based on the spatial spillover perspective, this paper analyzes in depth the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between economic growth and employment on the basis of testing the spatial correlation between economic growth and employment. The study found that: from the national level, the impact of economic growth on employment is significantly positive, and there is a positive spatial spillover effect on employmentat the present stage;from the regional level, there is spatial heterogeneity in the driving effect of economic growth on employment, and the economic growth of the eastern cities has the greatest driving effect on employment, while the economic growth of the northeastern region has a relatively small driving effect on employment, and the economic growth of the central and western cities has the same driving effect on employment;the spillover effect of China’s economic growth on employment also has spatial heterogeneity, the direct effect and total effect of the eastern region are the largest, while the economic growth of the western and northeastern regions has a negative indirect effect on employment;and the differences in technological progress, industrial structure upgrading, human capital, capital investment, government intervention and income distribution are the reasons for the non-consistent relationship between regional economic growth and employment. All regions should further promote the expansion and quality of employment, and at the same time adjust employment policies according to local conditions and promote the coordinated development of regional employment.