中国农村数字金融发展对农户的收入流动性影响研究

Research on the Impact of China’s Rural Digital Financial Development on Rural Households’ Income Mobility

研究目标:系统分析中国农村数字金融发展对农户收入流动性的影响。研究方法:基于来自中国家庭追踪调查和北京大学数字普惠金融指数的数据,采用有序Probit模型、工具变量法等进行实证研究。研究发现:农村数字金融发展有助于提高农户的收入流动性,促进非农就业和扩大农业经营规模是主要的作用机制。但是,农村数字金融发展并不能使得农户的收入流动性实现包容性增长。其对高收入阶层农户的收入流动性的提升作用要大于对低收入阶层的。这可能与农户的人力资本具有异质性,从而导致其受益于数字金融发展的机会不均等有关。即使对收入相对较低的农户而言,当其人力资本水平较高时,农村数字金融发展也更容易提高其收入流动性。研究创新:为农户收入流动性的研究提供了一个新的视角,并延伸了数字金融的福利评估范围,揭示出数字金融发展与收入流动性的包容性增长之间的关系。研究价值:对全面理解中国农村的数字金融发展和预防阶层固化问题有重要的意义。

Research Objectives:This study aims to present a systematic analysis of the impact of China’s rural digital financial development on the income mobility of rural households.Research Methods:Based on the data from CFPS and“Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index”,the ordered probit model,and the instrumental variable method were used to conduct empirical research.Research Findings:The rural digital financial development contributes to the improvement of the income mobility of rural households.Non-agricultural employment and the expansion of agricultural production scale are the main mechanism.However,the rural digital financial development cannot enable rural households’income mobility to achieve inclusive growth.Its role in improving the income mobility of high-income households is greater than that of low-income households.This may be related to the heterogeneity of human capital of rural households,resulting in unequal opportunities for them to benefit from the development of digital finance.Therefore,even for households with relatively low-income,when the level of human capital is high,the rural digital financial development may make their income mobility easier to improve.Research Innovations:This study provides a new perspective for the research on income mobility of rural households,and expands the scope of welfare assessment of digital finance,revealing the relationship between the development of digital finance and the inclusive growth of income mobility.Research Value:It is of great significance for comprehensively understanding the development of digital finance in rural China and preventing the problem of class consolidation.