新冠肺炎疫情对港口散杂货吞吐量的影响及建议

Data-driven Prediction and Impacts Analyse on Bulk Cargo Throughputs During the COVID-19 Pandemic

新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延导致我国外贸环境显著变化,对我国海运运输产生重要影响。为补充散杂货领域的研究空白,本研究以我国重要枢纽港口广州港为实例,基于广东省疫情和实际生产数据,应用时间序列模型进行预测与分析。实证结果表明:地区疫情强弱程度能够在港口吞吐量上反应且无明显滞后现象,并且,各细分货类的吞吐量变化较大,且影响因素较为复杂,可分为政策因素、价格指数、运价指数、国内外供需关系四大类。最后对后疫情时代的港口散杂货业务发展策略、货类管理办法提出对策建议。

The global spread of COVID-19 has led to significant changes in China’s foreign trade environment and had an important impact on China’s maritime transport.In order to fill the research gap in the field of bulk cargo,this study takes Guangzhou port,an important hub port in China,as an example.Based on the epidemic situation of Guangdong Province and actual production data,the time-series model is applied to forecast and analyze the COVID-19 Pandemic impacts on bulk cargo throughputs in port.The empirical results show that:the intensity of regional epidemic can be reflected in the port throughput without obvious lag phenomenon,and the throughput of each sub-category changes greatly,and the influencing factors are complex,which can be divided into four categories:policy factors,price index,freight index,domestic and international supply-demand relation.Finally,the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the developm ent strategy of bulk cargo business and cargo management methods in the post epidemic era.