战略竞争下的中国—美国—东盟三边安全关系研究

Research on China-US-ASEAN Trilateral Security Relations Under the Background of Intensifying Strategic Competition

在战略竞争不断加剧的背景下,中国—美国—东盟三边安全关系日益成为影响地区和平稳定的重要因素,并实际上呈现为一种非对称的“浪漫三角”模式。作为三边关系理论的学术内核,互动模式与运行动力分别揭示出三边关系的外在形式和内在机制,共同反映了国际政治现实中三边关系的静态运转和动态变迁,因此成为三边关系研究中的核心议题和重点所在。通过分别阐释中国—美国—东盟三边关系在传统安全领域和非传统安全领域的互动模式与运行动力,可以发现当前三边框架内的中美关系更多表现为一种消极状态,两国竞相寻求与东盟加强安全合作,东盟则积极回应这种诉求并努力推动中美战略竞争保持在适度范围,谋求维持其在这组三边关系中的“枢纽”地位。鉴于“浪漫三角”模式的不稳定性以及一些国际政治现实因素的影响,未来中国—美国—东盟三边安全关系的发展存在着量变与质变均可能发生的不确定性。中国在这组三边关系中的“侧翼”地位处于一种虽非最优但属较优的状态,因此应当在积极引导中美安全竞争朝向良性轨道发展的同时,继续推进与东盟国家间的安全合作,争取处理和管控这组重要的三边关系。

With the intensification of Sino-US strategic competition,the China-USASEAN security relationship has increasingly become an important factor affecting regional peace and stability,and in effect presents an asymmetric“romantic triangle”pattern.As the academic core of the trilateral relationship theory,the interaction mode and operation power reveal the external form and internal mechanism of the trilateral relationship respectively,and jointly reflect the static operation and dynamic change of the trilateral relationship in the international political reality,so they become the topic and focus of the trilateral relationship research.By explaining the interaction mode and operation power of the China-US-ASEAN security relationship in the traditional and non-traditional security fields respectively,the paper argues that the current Sino-US relationship within the trilateral framework is more of a negative state.The two countries compete to seek to strengthen security cooperation with ASEAN countries,while ASEAN actively responds to such appeals and tries to promote the strategic competition between China and the United States but within a moderate range,and seeks to maintain its“pivot”status in the trilateral relationship.In view of the instability of the“romantic triangle”relationship and the influence of some international political factors,the development of the China-US-ASEAN security relationship in the future will be full of some uncertainties.In other words,quantitative or qualitative changes may occur.However,China’s“wing”status in this trilateral relationship is not optimal but relatively superior.Therefore,while actively guiding the development of Sino-US security competition towards a positive track,China should continue to promote security cooperation with ASEAN countries,and strive to properly handle and manage this important trilateral relationship.