政策自主性与美国退群外交

A Theoretical Explanation of the US Withdrawal Diplomacy from the Perspective of Policy Autonomy

既有国际制度研究对作为霸权国的美国如何通过退群外交来修正国际制度没有给予深入研究。作者试图通过政策自主性理论来解释美国退群外交。政策自主性是指国家在某一特定国际制度中因其拥有的结构性地位而享有的依据自身意愿行事的自由度。结构性地位越高,则行事自由度越大,政策自主性越强。美国在国际制度中的政策自主性下降是决定其是否退群的根本原因,但是否以及何时退群还受到主体认知与自主性竞争进程的影响。当政策自主性下降时,美国将发出“威胁退出”的信号,单边主义政府的执政会加速美国退群,而多边主义政府的执政会促使美国不退群。同时,围绕呼吁和谈判的自主性竞争进程将影响美国退群过程。当呼吁失效时,美国将退群;当呼吁有效但谈判失败时,美国仍将退群;当美国呼吁有效且谈判成功时,美国将不退群。政策自主性解释框架综合了影响外交决策的结构性、主体性与进程性因素,能够较好地解释美国退群外交的根本原因和具体进程。政策自主性的理论与案例分析表明,无论是退群还是入群都只是美国政府的战略选项,进一步维持和增强政策自主性才是其外交根本目标。

The international regimes have always been the wings of the United States hegemony.The mainstream literature on international institutions focuses on their impact on state behavior,without in-depth research on how countries shape the international institutions,especially how the hegemony revises the international regimes through withdrawal diplomacy.With Trump’s frequent withdrawal behaviors,how to explain such acts has become an important issue in IR studies.Policy autonomy is the freedom for a state to act according to its own will due to its structural position in a given international regime.The structural autonomy of the policy enjoyed by the United States in the international multilateral regime is the root cause of its withdrawal,which is also directly affected by the subject’s cognition and the process of policy autonomy competition.The United States’interactions with the International Monetary Fund,World Bank,World Trade Organization,the Iranian Nuclear Deal,UNESCO,the Kyoto Protocol,and the Paris Climate Agreement are oriented by its fundamental goal of maintaining its policy autonomy,which are also directly affected by the subject’s cognition and the process of policy autonomy competition.The theoretical framework based on the policy autonomy combines the structural,subjective and interactive factors that shape the foreign policy decision-making on the premise of the structural factors,which can help explain both the fundamental reason for and the implementation of the United States’withdrawal policy.The study of the United States’withdrawal diplomacy will help further understand the great power competition around policy autonomy,and shed light on how China can participate in and create the international multilateral regimes.