国际承认、国内政治与大国的地位追求策略

International Recognition,Domestic Politics,and Status-Seeking Strategies of Great Powers

地位抱负的普遍存在与地位追求的深远影响凸显了地位政治研究的重大价值。大国在追求国际地位时呈现耐心进取与强势竞逐的策略差别,这种策略分异的原因值得深入探讨。聚焦国际社会的承认态度和国内精英的支持状况两个关键因素,以成本—收益权衡、心理归因为因果机制,作者构建了大国地位追求的策略选择理论:在获得地位承认且存在精英共识时,或者遭到地位否认且陷于精英分裂时,大国更倾向于选择耐心进取型策略;在遭到地位否认且存在精英共识时,或者获得地位承认且陷于精英分裂时,大国更倾向于选择强势竞逐型策略。对1905—1927年日本追求种族平等地位和海权强国地位的过程追踪分析与比较案例分析发现,在国际承认态度和精英支持状况共同影响下,日本在种族问题上由耐心进取转向强势竞逐,在海权问题上则由强势竞逐转向耐心进取。相关发现揭示了找回国内政治因素、关注议题领域异质性对推进地位政治研究的意义,也可为怀有地位雄心的大国提供政策启示。

The prevalence of status ambitions and the far-reaching influence of status seeking both highlight the great value of status politics studies.Great powers present distinct decision-making tendencies between the patient strategy and the competitive one in their status-seeking behaviors.It is necessary to further explore the reason behind such variation.Focusing on the two main factors,namely international recognition and elite support,and following the causal mechanism of cost-benefit calculation and psychological attribution,a theory of the great power’s strategic choice on status seeking is developed.Under the condition of status recognition and elite consensus,or the condition of status denial and elite division,the leaders of great powers would prefer the patient status-seeking strategy.While under the condition of status denial and elite consensus,or the condition of status recognition and elite division,the leaders of great powers would prefer the competitive status-seeking strategy.By comprehensively using the methods like process tracing and the comparative case study to analyze Japan’s racial equality claim and sea power ambition from 1905 to 1927,it is found that Japan turned her status-seeking strategy from patient to competitive on the former issue,and from competitive to patient on the latter affected by international recognition and elite support.This discovery reveals the significance of bringing domestic politics back in and emphasizing heterogeneity in issue areas for advancing the study on status politics.Meanwhile,this research provides some policy implications for the great powers with status ambitions in reality.