重庆市能源消费碳排放动态特征及驱动因素分解

Dynamic Characteristics and Driving Factors Decomposition of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Chongqing

运用《省级温室气体清单编制指南》推荐的测算方法,对2006—2019年重庆市能源消费碳排量放进行核算,分析碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度的动态特征。以2006年为基期,运用LMDI因素分解法对重庆能源消费碳排放进行因素分解,得到各阶段经济规模、人口规模、能源结构和能源强度对碳排放的驱动效应。研究表明:(1)2006—2019年,重庆能源消费碳排放先后经历了快速增长期和平台波动期;人均碳排放与碳排放总量的变化趋势基本一致;碳排放强度逐年下降。(2)经济发展效应对CO_(2)增长起绝对正向作用;能源消费强度对CO_(2)排放抑制作用明显。

Using the calculation method recommended by the"Guidelines for Compilation of Provincial Greenhouse Gas Inventories",the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Chongqing from 2006 to 2019 are calculated.And the dynamic characteristics of total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,and carbon emissions intensity are anlyzed.Taking 2006 as the base period,the LMDI method is used to decompose the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Chongqing,and the driving effects of economic scale,population size,energy structure and energy intensity on carbon emissions at each stage are obtained.The research shows that:(1)From 2006 to 2019,the carbon emission of energy consumption in Chongqing has experienced a period of rapid growth and a period of platform fluctuation;the trend of per capita carbon emissions is consistent with that of total carbon emissions;the carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year.(2)The effect of economic development has an absolutely positive effect on the growth of CO_(2);the intensity of energy consumption has an obvious inhibitory effect on CO_(2)emission.