基于GeoSOS模型的大范围城市扩张模拟分析——以四川省为例

Simulation analysis of large-scale urban expansion based on GeoSOS model:a case of Sichuan province

城市扩张是一个复杂的过程,元胞自动机(CA)模型是动态模拟城市扩张的重要工具,也是城市扩张的研究热点。传统研究主要集中在对某一个城市或者城市的某一个区域的城市扩张情况进行模拟分析,而对于大范围的城市扩张模拟分析研究存在不足。本研究以四川省2000年、2010年和2018年遥感数据和土地利用数据为基础,首先结合土地利用转换分析讨论四川省的城市扩张来源,然后结合GeoSOS平台,利用DT-CA模型和Logistic-CA模型,考虑空间限制因素和影响因素,对四川省城市扩张过程进行模拟,再利用综合评价较高的模型对四川省2025年城市扩张情况进行预测。结果发现,四川省的城市扩张主要以耕地转换为城镇用地为主,其城市扩张主要集中在东部,东部的扩张主要集中在四川盆地内;两个模型都可以对大范围的城市扩张进行模拟,且模拟结果的kappa系数均在0.6以上,模拟效果较好,通过综合比较,DT-CA模型更佳;四川省2025年城市扩张预测结果和现阶段的城市扩张方向和主要扩张地区大体趋势相同。利用合理的模型,对大范围的城市扩张情况进行模拟分析,可以为今后的地区发展规划提供决策支持。

Urban sprawl is a complex process,and cellular automata(CA)model is an important tool for dynamic urban sprawl simulation.Traditional studies mainly focus on the simulation analysis of urban expansion in a certain city or a certain region of the city,but there are some deficiencies in the large-scale simulation analysis of urban expansion.This study taking Sichuan province of 2000,2010 and 2018 remote sensing data and land use data as the foundation,this the first region to use transformation analysis for the discussion of the Sichuan province,including sources of urban expansion,by combining GeoSOS platform,using DT-CA model and Logistic-CA model,considering the space limit factors and influencing factors,to simulate the urban expansion and reuse of higher comprehensive evaluation model to forecast the urban expansion in 2025 in southwestern Sichuan province.The results show that the urban expansion of Sichuan province is mainly based on the conversion of cultivated land to urban land.Its urban expansion is mainly concentrated in the east,and the eastern expansion is mainly concentrated in the Sichuan basin.Both models can simulate large-scale urban expansion,and the kappa coefficient of the simulation results is above 0.6,showing a good simulation effect.Through comprehensive comparison,the DT-CA model is better.The forecast result of Sichuan province in 2025 is roughly the same as the current urban expansion direction and major expansion areas.Using the reasonable model to simulate and analyze the large-scale urban expansion can provide decision support for the future regional development planning.