福建省交通碳排放影响因素与减碳趋势研究

Research on influencing factors and carbon reduction trend of transportation carbon emissions in Fujian Province

交通运输业是碳排放主要贡献者,推进交通减排是行业发展的要求.利用“自上而下”法测算福建省交通碳排放量,选取客、货运周转量、人均GDP、机动车保有量、碳排放强度、城市化率等影响因素,采用普通最小二乘回归及岭回归法进行分析;利用主成分分析法筛选出主成分,分析福建省交通减碳趋势,研究结果可为福建省实施节能减排政策提供数据参考.

The transportation industry is a major contributor to carbon emissions, and promoting transportation emission reduction is a requirement for industry development. The “top-down” method was applied to measure the carbon emissions of transportation in Fujian Province, the influencing factors such as passenger turnover, freight turnover, per capita GDP, motor vehicle ownership, carbon emission intensity, urbanization rate were selected, and the ordinary least squares regression and ridge regression methods were used for analysis. The Principal Component Analysis method was used to screen out the principal components, and the trends of transportation carbon reduction in Fujian Province were analyzed. The research results can provide data reference for the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies in Fujian Province.