中国房价上涨降低人口出生率了吗?——基于2000-2019年省际面板数据的分析

A Study on the Impact of China’s Rising House Prices on the Birth Rate?——Analysis Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data from 2000 to 2019

2000年以来,中国人口出生率走低引起了政府和学界的广泛关注。基于微观经济学的效用理论分析房价上涨对家庭养育子女数量的影响,利用2000-2019年中国31个省区市的面板数据,使用差分GMM模型分析房价上涨对人口出生率的影响,得出房价上涨显著降低了人口出生率,长期来看“全面二孩”政策对提高人口出生率的作用并不十分显著的结论。以提高人口出生率为目标,提出建议:坚持“房住不炒”,促进房产市场平稳发展;加快发展保障性住房,保障刚性需求;系统构建生育友好的制度环境。

Since 2000, the rapid decline of China’s birth rate has attracted extensive attention from the government and academic circles. Firstly, based on the utility theory of microeconomics, this paper analyzes the impact of rising house prices on the number of family children. Then, using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, this paper uses the differential GMM model to analyze the impact of housing price rising on the birth rate, and draws the conclusion that housing price rising will significantly reduce the birth rate. But in the long run, the effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy on increasing the birth rate in China is not very significant. To increase the birth rate, we should adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation" and promote the steady development of the real estate market. Furthermore, it is necessary to accelerate the development of affordable housing to ensure rigid demand, and build a fertility friendly institutional environment systematically.