规范地方政府隐性债务的金融风险分析和总体判断

Financial Risk Analysis and Overall Judgment of Regulating Local Governments Implicit Debt

地方政府隐性债务与金融体系紧密相连,因此在处置地方政府隐性债务的过程中,如果处置不当或者操之过急,很可能引发“处置风险的风险”,并与其他金融风险结合,造成新的更大的系统性风险。隐性债务风险与处置风险的风险,这两种风险都是源于地方政府的信用不足,且都将造成较大的金融体系震荡,但隐性债务风险时滞长、分布散、冲击弱,而衍生风险则更加迅速、传播快且冲击性强。总体来看,隐性债务风险引发系统性金融风险的可能性极低,但隐性债务带来的风险是长期隐蔽、侵蚀性的,将对经济造成长期不利影响。

The implicit debt of local governments relates closely to the financial system. Therefore, in the process of disposing local governments’ implicit debt, if the disposal is improper or too hasty, it is likely to cause "risk of disposing risk", creating new systemic risk combined with other financial risks.Implicit debt risk and "risk of disposing risk" are both caused by the lack of credit of local governments, and they will cause major financial system shocks.Implicit debt risk is long time-lagged, scattered distribution, and weak shock to the financial system, while "risk of disposing risk" spreads faster and has stronger shock to the financial system.Overall, the possibility of implicit debt risk causing systemic financial risks is very low, but the risk brought by implicit debts is long-term hidden and erosive, and may have long-term adverse effects on the economy.