长三角地区国内旅游需求收入弹性测算及发展潜力预测

Prediction of Domestic Tourism Demand in Yangtze River Delta Region

长三角城市群作为我国最大的城市群,贡献了全国约1/4的GDP以及一半以上的旅游收入。文章基于2010-2019年“长三角一体化”战略相关城市的面板数据,运用弹性的定义测算各城市的旅游需求收入弹性,根据其弹性值并结合指数平滑法对长三角地区2022-2026年的旅游发展潜力进行预测。研究表明:(1)安徽省和浙江省城市的收入弹性值普遍高于上海市和江苏省城市的收入弹性值;同一城市人均GDP对其国内旅游收入的影响高于对国内旅游人次的影响。(2)安徽省和浙江省旅游业的发展潜力大于上海市和江苏省旅游业的发展潜力;同一城市的国内旅游收入增长率略高于旅游人次增长率。(3)长三角地区游客的地理集中指数和变差系数均较低且呈下降趋势,表明游客分布较为分散,空间集聚性较弱。

With the rapid development of tourism in China,the study of tourism demand prediction has become a hot topic.Based on the panel data of cities related to the"Yangtze River Delta integration"strategy from 2010 to 2019,this study uses the definition of elasticity to measure the income elasticity of tourism demand in each city,and uses the exponential smoothing method to predict the development potential of tourism demand in Yangtze River Delta Region from 2021 to 2025 based on its elasticity value.The study shows that:1)the income elasticity values of cities in Anhui Province and Zhejiang Province are generally higher than those of cities in Shanghai and Jiangsu Province;the impact of GDP per capita on domestic tourism income is greater than that on domestic tourist arrivals in the same cities.2)the development potential of tourism in Anhui Province and Zhejiang Province is greater than that of Shanghai and Jiangsu Province in the future;the growth rate of domestic tourism income in the same cities is slightly higher than that of tourist arrivals,3)The geographical concentration index and coefficient of variation of tourists in the Yangtze River Delta region are both low and in a downward trend,indicating that the distribution of tourists is relatively scattered and spatial agglomeration is weak.