对外直接投资影响上市公司股价和绩效吗?——基于上市公司匹配数据的实证研究

Outward Direct Investment and Corporate Stock Prices: An Empirical Study Based on Corporate and Project Differences

“高水平走出去”是我国在新发展格局下的重要发展战略。然而企业对外直接投资在微观层面对企业有何具体影响?本文选取2006年至2019年中国企业对外投资以及A股和港股上市公司股价数据,实证检验了对外直接投资(ODI)如何影响企业股价及经营绩效。我们发现:第一,短期内ODI会带来积极的股价反应,港股市场反应幅度和持续性均更强,但对经营绩效没有显著影响;第二,企业所有权属性差异对股价反应有显著影响;第三,投资目的国地理位置、收入水平差异对股价反应有显著影响;第四,投资项目行业差异、项目行业与企业主营业务差异显著影响股价反应;第五,2017年国家对外投资政策对股价反应具有显著影响,“一带一路”倡议则未表现出显著影响。最后,两地股票市场对于不同特征的企业对外投资反应存在较大差异。

This paper uses data on Chinese companies’ outbound direct investment( ODI) and stock prices of listed companies on A-share and Hong Kong market from 2006 to 2019 to study the impacts of stock price and operating performance of ODI of Chinese corporations. We finds that,first,in the short term,ODI will bring out a positive stock price response,and the impact in Hong Kong market is stronger and more durable. But it has no significant impact on the actual operating performance of the company. Second,the two markets have different responses to ODI with different ownership attributes. Third,differences in geographic location and income level of target country of ODI have a significant impact on the stock price response. Fourth,the differences in the industry of ODI,the differences of the relation between project industry and the main business of the enterprise significantly affect the stock price response. Fifth,in 2017,the state’s guidance and regulations of OFI also had a significant impact on the stock price response,while the Belt and Road did not show a significant impact. Finally,responses of the two markets to different characteristics of foreign investment are quite different.