全球比较视野下中国农业出口增加值隐含碳测度与结构分析

Measurement and Structural Analysis of the Embodied Carbon in the Added Value of Agricultural Exports in China from the Perspective of Global Comparison

在国际贸易过程中,我国农业高消耗、高碳化问题日益突出,如何改善农业出口贸易中环境成本与环境效益之间的关系成为降低农业高碳化出口的关键,对实现我国低碳农业颇有价值。通过构建GMRIO模型,利用2007-2019年可比价格连续时间非竞争型投入产出表,测度和结构分解亚洲、北美、欧盟主要国家农业出口增加值隐含碳。研究表明:我国农业出口贸易转型取得初步成效,农业出口增加值隐含碳降幅较快,但仍高于全球主要发达经济体;农业碳排放强度的急剧下降是我国农业出口贸易增加值隐含碳的关键影响因素;应合理制定农业出口规模优化政策,适当提高农业贸易壁垒,减少别国对我国农业出口增加值隐含碳的转移,同时提高一些低附加值、低排放农产品的出口竞争力,提高我国农产品出口的综合附加值。

In the process of international trade,the problem of the problem of high consumption and high carbonization of agriculture in China has become increasingly prominent.How to improve the relationship between environmental costs and environmental benefits in agricultural export trade has become the key to reduce the high-carbon agricultural exports,which is of great value to the realization of low-carbon agriculture in China.By constructing the MRIO model,and using the continuous-time non-competitive input-output table of comparable prices from 2007 to 2019,the embodied carbon in the added value of agricultural exports in the major countries of Asia,North America and the European Union was measured and structurally decomposed.The research showed that the transformation of agricultural export trade in China has achieved preliminary results,and the embodied carbon in the added value of agricultural exports decreased rapidly,but it was still higher than that of the major developed economies in the world.The sharp decline of the agricultural carbon emission intensity was the key factor influencing the embodied carbon in the added value of agricultural export trade in China.Therefore,the countermeasures were put forward including rationally formulating the policies to optimize the scale of agricultural exports,appropriately increasing the agricultural trade barriers,reducing the transfer of embodied carbon in the added value of agricultural exports in China from other countries,and enhancing the export competitiveness of some agricultural products with low added value and low emission,improving the comprehensive added value of agricultural exports in China,etc.