人口红利的经济效应——基于质量和数量的双重研究视角

Economic Effect of Demographic Dividend--Based on the Dual Research Perspectives of Quality and Quantity

在质量和数量的双重视角下定性研究人口红利对经济增长的影响机制和路径,并基于2001—2019年30个省份的面板数据,运用面板固定模型、面板分位数模型、Bootstrap中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型等进行实证分析。结果显示:人口数量红利会显著驱动经济总量增长,但会抑制经济质量提升,人口质量红利则能同时促进经济总量和经济质量的发展;我国经济发展进入新常态后,人口质量红利正在取代人口数量红利成为经济发展的主导力量;人口数量红利和人口质量红利通过产业结构升级和技术进步对经济发展产生了间接影响;人口数量红利对经济质量具有空间抑制效应,而人口质量红利对经济总量具有显著的空间溢出效应。

From the dual perspectives of quality and quantity,this paper qualitatively studied the influencing mechanism and paths of demographic dividend on economic development,and made an empirical analysis through applying the panel fixed effect model,the panel quantile model,the Bootstrap mediation effect model and the spatial Durbin model based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2001 to 2019.The results were listed as follows.Firstly,demographic quantity dividend has significantly driven the growth of economic aggregate,but has also inhibited the development of economic quality.However,demographic quality dividend could promote the development of the two aspects of economy.Secondly,after entering a new normal in economic development,population quality dividend has gradually replaced demographic quantity dividend as the main force in economic development.Thirdly,both demographic quantity dividend and demographic quality dividend have exerted an indirect effect on economic development through the channels of industrial structure upgrading and technological progress.Finally,demographic quantity dividend had a spatial inhibitory effect on economic quality,while demographic quality dividend had a significant spatial spillover effect on economic aggregate.