中国“一带一路”倡议的沿线国家经济增长效应:质还是量

Economic Growth Effect of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on the Countries along the“Belt and Road”:Quality or Quantity?

本文基于116个“一带一路”沿线国家2010—2019年的样本数据,运用多期双重差分模型实证检验了“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家经济增长的促进效应,并在科学测算五通指数的基础上,运用中介效应模型分析了这一促进效应的机制问题。结果表明:(1)“一带一路”倡议不仅能够促进沿线国家经济规模的增长,还有利于沿线国家经济增长质量的提升,即实现了“量质齐升”;(2)从具体的作用机制看,政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通、民心相通,是“一带一路”倡议促进沿线国家经济增长实现“量质齐升”的重要作用机制;(3)从不同维度的互联互通效果来看,贸易畅通和资金融通在“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家的经济规模的促进效应中机制作用更加显著,设施联通和民心相通在“一带一路”倡议对沿线国家的经济增长质量的促进效应中机制作用更加显著。本文的研究发现不仅为澄清国际社会对“一带一路”的“误解、质疑、担忧、抹黑”等提供了科学的理论支撑和经验证据,而且对于进一步高质量建设“一带一路”也有重要政策含义。

Based on the data of 116 countries along the“Belt and Road”from 2010 to2019,this paper empirically tests the promotion effect of the“Belt and Road”initiative on the economic growth of countries along the route by employing a multi-period difference-indifferences model.Also,the index of the“Five-connectivity”is calculated scientifically based on the mechanism of this promotion effect and intermediary effect model.This paper finds that(1)the“Belt and Road”initiative promotes both scale and quality about economic growth of the countries along the route;(2)the connectivity in policy,infrastructure,trade,finance,and“People-to-people Bound”forms an important mechanism,through which the“Belt and Road”initiative promotes the economic growth of the countries both in quantity and quality;(3)in terms of connectivity effects of different dimensions,the connectivity in trade and finance plays a more significant role in promoting the scale of economic growth in countries along the“Belt and Road”,also the effects of the connectivity in facility and connectivity in“People-to-people Bound”on the promotion of the quality of economic growth in countries along the“Belt and Road”are more significant.The findings not only provide theoretical support and empirical evidence scientifically for clarifying the misunderstanding,doubt,concern,and smear for the“Belt and Road”in international community,but also present important policy implication for further high-quality construction of the initiative.