灰色GM(1,1)预测模型在中药上市企业财务指标预测中的应用--以主营业务收入及净利润为例

Application of GM(1,1)Model in Financial Index Prediction of Listed Chinese Medicine Enterprises:A Case Study of Main Business Revenue and Net Profit

目的:运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对我国中药上市企业主营业务收入和净利润进行预测分析。方法:以北京同仁堂股份有限公司、云南白药集团股份有限公司等10家中药上市企业为样本,分析各企业2011—2020年的主营业务收入和净利润发展现状,采用Matlab 7.0软件构建和拟合灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测各企业2021—2025年主营业务收入和净利润发展趋势。结果:基于各企业2011—2020年的主营业务收入和净利润构建预测模型,结果显示,预测模型的发展系数(a)均满足–a小于0.3,后验差比值(C)均小于0.35,且P值均为1.000,模型预测精确度均为好。预测结果显示,各企业2021—2025年主营业务收入将整体呈增长趋势,净利润则出现不同的发展趋势。结论:灰色GM(1,1)模型预测中药上市企业财务指标主营业务收入和净利润的拟合效果好,可应用于财务指标的中长期预测。各企业的主营业务收入将不断增加,但净利润波动较大,企业应根据财务指标的发展趋势,适当调整发展战略方向,以提高企业获利能力和盈利运营能力。

Objective:To predict and analyze the main business revenue and net profit of listed Chinese medicine enterprises by the GM(1,1)model.Methods:The general conditions of main business revenue and net profit of 10 listed Chinese medicine enterprises such as Beijing Tong Ren Tang Group and Yunnan Baiyao Group from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed.Matlab 7.0 was used to build and fit the GM(1,1)model to predict the development trend of main business revenue and net profit of each enterprise from 2021 to 2025.Results:The prediction model was built based on the main business revenue and net profit of each enterprise from 2011 to 2020.The results showed that-a was less than 0.3,the posterior variance test C was less than 0.35,and P was 1.000,indicating high prediction accuracy of the model.The prediction results showed that the main business revenue of each enterprise from 2021 to 2025 is expected to increase,while the net profit will be diverse in different development trends.Conclusion:GM(1,1)model has a good fitting effect in predicting the main business revenue and net profit of listed Chinese medicine enterprises,and can be applied to the medium-and long-term prediction of financial indexes.The main business revenue of each enterprise is expected to increase,but the net profit fluctuates greatly.Therefore,the enterprise should adjust the strategic development direction appropriately according to the development trend of financial indexes to improve profitability and profitable operation ability.