基于LEAP模型的浙江省能源消费和碳达峰路径规划研究

On the LEAP Model-based Path Planning of Energy Consumption and Peak Carbon Emissions in Zhejiang Province

全国层面的碳达峰碳中和愿景需要分解落实到各个区域。以浙江省为例,将全省能源平衡表作为基础资料,汇总最新出台的各类“十四五”相关规划等政策文件,通过构建能源消费和碳排放LEAP模型,设置基准情景、电气化情景、节能化情景、绿电化情景展开比较研究。结果显示:按照当前的政策力度,浙江省的能源强度下降率能够满足政策要求,但碳峰值将于2031年到达,难以满足“2030碳达峰”愿景。因此,需要按照对比情景的要求,持续推动终端部门节能降耗,深度挖掘电力部门减排潜力,稳妥提高零碳能源应用比例,在全社会开展碳达峰行动。

The national goal of peaking carbon emissions and carbon neutrality need to be disintegrated to every district. Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, using provincial energy balance sheets as basic material, summarizing latest policy documents such as the 14th Five-Year Plan, this paper sets up a LEAP model on energy consumption and carbon emissions. This model includes baseline scenario, electrification scenario, energy conservation scenario, green electricity scenario. The comparison of these scenarios shows that according to the related current policies, the decline of energy intensity could meet the plan, but the carbon emission might peak in 2031, failing to meet the target of 2030-peaking. In the light of the requirement of the contrastive scenarios, we should continue to promote energy conservation in terminal departments, tap the potential in electricity generation sector, enhance the usage of non-carbon energy, and carry out the action plan of peaking carbon emissions in the society as a whole.