基于未确知测度理论公路隧道塌方风险评价

Tunnel collapse risk assessment based on unascertained measure theory

公路隧道塌方是较为常见的工程安全事故,预先进行科学有效的风险评价对于防控隧道塌方风险具有重要意义。根据规范、现有研究和公路隧道工程特点构建了公路隧道塌方风险评价指标体系。针对传统单一赋权风险评价方法会造成评价指标主客观权重被单方面强化的问题,引入博弈论法进行组合赋权以综合主客观权重信息,提出了基于组合赋权和未确知测度理论的公路隧道塌方风险评价模型。采用3标度层次分析法和熵值法确定评价指标主观权重和客观权重,并运用博弈论法确定评价指标组合权重;结合未确知测度理论得到评价对象的多指标测度综合评价向量,并根据置信度识别准则确定隧道塌方风险等级。将提出的模型应用于福建鱼塘溪隧道4个典型施工区段风险分析中,得出隧道洞口段塌方风险可能性最高,与现场评估结果基本相符。

Highway tunnel collapse is a common engineering accident.Scientific and effective risk assessment in advance is of great significance for prevention and control of tunnel collapses.According to the code,existing researches and characteristics of highway tunnel engineering,the risk evaluation index system of highway tunnel collapse was constructed.Aiming at the problem that the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indexes were strengthened unilaterally by the traditional single weighting risk evaluation method,the game theory was introduced to synthesize the subjective and objective weight information,and the risk evaluation model of highway tunnel collapse was proposed based on the combined weighting and unascertained measure theory.Improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP)and entropy method were used to determine the subjective weight and objective weight of the evaluation indicators,and the game theory method is used to determine the combination weight of the evaluation indicators.Combined with the unascertained measure theory,the multi-index measure comprehensive evaluation vector of the evaluation object was obtained,and the risk level of tunnel collapse was determined according to the confidence recognition criterion.The proposed model was applied to the risk analysis of four typical construction sections of Yutangxi Tunnel in Fujian Province,and it was concluded that the tunnel entrance section has the highest possibility of collapse risk,which is basically consistent with the field evaluation results.