基于FTA-BN模型的粉尘爆炸风险评估及控制研究

Research on risk assessment and control of dust explosion based on FTA-BN model

粉尘爆炸风险评估涉及到许多不确定、客观性不足的因素。从粉尘爆炸5要素出发,引入事故树分析法(FTA)与贝叶斯网络(BN),构建FTA-BN模型。首先通过对粉尘爆炸事故的原因进行综合分析,绘制粉尘爆炸事故的事故树,同时采用GeNIE软件将事故树转换为贝叶斯网络,利用贝叶斯网络模型的双向推理功能,既能评估粉尘爆炸风险等级,又能逆向推理找出造成粉尘爆炸的关键影响因素。根据粉尘爆炸原理,对粉尘爆炸风险点采取措施,为粉尘爆炸风险控制提供措施依据。

Dust explosion risk assessment involves many uncertain and insufficient objective factors.Starting from the five elements of dust explosion,the fault tree analysis method(FTA)and Bayesian network(BN)are introduced to construct the FTA-BN model.First,through a comprehensive analysis of the causes of dust explosion accidents,the accident tree of dust explosion accidents is drawn,besides,the accident tree is converted into a Bayesian network using GeNlE software,and the two-way reasoning function of the Bayesian network model can be used to assess the dust explosion risk level and reverse the infernce to find out the key influencing factors causing the dust explosion.According to the principle of dust explosion,measures are taken for dust explosion risk points to provide a basis for dust explosion risk control.