硝化品爆炸事故责任的描述性统计分析

Descriptive statistical analysis of nitrification explosion accident liability

硝化品在生产、经营、储存、运输中具有极大的潜在火灾爆炸危险性,以前针对硝化品管理中存在的危险隐患统计方法并不合理,因此关于硝化品爆炸事故始终没有一个值得信服的发生概率。为了使我国化工企业硝化品爆炸事故安全评价更加具有科学性,采用描述性统计方法,对2005—2019年中国典型的硝化物爆炸事故调查报告进行统计,分析了主体责任概率。发现硝化品经营单位的主要负责人在一个经营周期内,如果不能履行七大责任,发生事故的平均概率为86.04%,两个经营许可周期内发生事故的概率是100%,通过上述结论为我国硝化品企业的安全生产提出新的管理思路。

Nitrification products have great potential fire and explosion hazards in production,operation,storage,and transportation.Previous statistical methods for the hidden dangers in the management of nitrification products are unreasonable so there is no convincing occurrence of nitrification product explosion accidents.In order to make the safety assessment of nitrification explosion accidents in China′s chemical enterprises more scientific,this paper uses descriptive statistical methods to analyze the main responsibility probability of typical nitration explosion accidents in China from 2005 to 2019.It is found that the average probability of accidents is 86.04%if the principal person in charge of the nitrating products business unit fails to fulfill his seven responsibilities in one business cycle,and 100%in two business license cycles.The above conclusions provide new management ideas for the safety production of nitrating products enterprises in China.