近15年来中国北方水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调发展评价

Evaluation of the Coupling Coordination Development of Water Resources,Socio-economy and Eco-environment in Northern China in Recent 15 Years

为探究中国北方地区水资源开发利用与社会经济及生态环境可持续发展之间的耦合程度、协调发展水平及其主要制约因素,构建了“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”耦合协调评价模型,从片区(东北、华北、西北)、行政单元(省、直辖市)的尺度上量化分析了2005-2019年水资源、社会经济和生态环境等各子系统及其耦合系统的发展状态。研究结果表明:近15年来,北方地区水资源、社会经济与生态环境各子系统发展水平均不断提高,社会经济子系统发展最快,而水资源子系统则发展缓慢;水资源、社会经济和生态环境子系统的耦合度始终处于优质耦合水平,表明水资源、社会经济和生态环境的发展之间存在显著的影响;“水资源-社会经济-生态环境”整体系统的耦合协调发展水平持续提高,但仍处于协调发展的初级阶段,表明水资源、社会经济和生态环境三个系统的协同发展作用不断加强,但尚存在不平衡、不和谐的因素。相对而言,华北地区通过加强区域水资源管理,优化水资源利用效率和用水结构,弥补了水资源自然禀赋不足问题,区域耦合协调程度在北方三个片区中处于最好水平,而东北和西北地区的耦合协调程度相对略差,需进一步改善水资源利用结构和提高水资源利用效率。

In order to investigate the degree of coupling,the level of coordinated development and its main constraints between the development and utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of socio-economy and eco-environment in northern China,this paper builds a coupling coordination evaluation model and quantitatively analyzed the development of water resources,socio-economy,eco-environment subsystems and the coupled systems from 2005 to 2019 on the scale of areas(Northeast,Northwest and North China)and administrative units(provinces and municipalities).As shown by results,in the past 15 years,the development level of the three subsystems has all been continuously improved.Among them,the socio-economy subsystem has developed fastest,while the water resources subsystem has developed slowly.In addition,the coupling degree of the three subsystems has always been at a high-quality coupling level,indicating that these subsystems have a significant impact on each other.Although,the coupling coordinated development level of this composite system consists of water resources,socio-economy,and eco-environment has been continuously improved,it remains in the primary stage.That is to say,the coordinated development among the three subsystems is strengthening,while the unbalanced and discordant factors still exist.Relatively speaking,North China has been making up for the shortage of natural endowment of water resources by strengthening regional water resources management and optimizing water resource utilization efficiency and water use structure.Hence,the degree of coupling and coordination in North China is at the best level among the three northern regions,but seems to be relatively poor in Northeast and Northwest,where improving the structure and efficiency of water resources utilization further is needed.