基于蒙特卡罗模拟的水电开发利益分享模型

Benefit Sharing Model of Hydropower Development Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

在回顾前人研究的基础上,为科学合理地量化利益分享数额这项核心要素,构建水电开发利益共享模型,并进行案例分析。结果表明,依据利益相关者理论,可采用净现值法建立利益分享模型,此模型中移民等主要利益相关者以水电项目净现金流量的累计折现值与其投入占比的乘积作为分享额,其影响因素分为确定性与不确定性两类,后者能运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法加以预测,进而计算出利益分享额,溪洛渡水电站的案例证明了该模型的可行性和合理性。基于模型结果,可通过建立移民共享发展基金且兼顾其他相关方利益,推动实现电站收益稳健、库区繁荣稳定、移民增收共富的互利共赢新格局。

Based on the review of previous studies,a hydropower development benefit sharing model is constructed to quantify benefit sharing amount scientifically and rationally,and a case study is conducted.The results show that based on the stakeholder theory,the benefit sharing model can be established by net present value method.In this model main stakeholders such as immigrants taking the product of cumulative discount value of hydropower projects and its investment proportion as benefit sharing amount,which is affected by deterministic and uncertain factors.The latter can be predicted by Monte Carlo simulation method,and then the amount of benefit sharing is calculated.The case of Xiluodu Hydropower Station proves the feasibility and rationality of the model.Based on the results of the model,through the establishment of immigrants shared development fund and taking into account the interests of other interested parties,we can achieve a new mutually beneficial and win-win pattern of stable income of power stations,prosperity and stability of reservoir area,and wealthy of immigrants.