行政区划调整能够约束地方政府行政管理支出膨胀吗?——来自撤县设区的证据

Can Administrative District Adjustments Constrain the Expansion of Local Government Administrative Expenditures?——Experimental Evidence from the “District-county Merger”

行政区划调整作为改革地方政府行政管理结构与地方政府层级的主要手段,会对地方政府产生财政效应,而撤县设区作为被地方政府频繁使用的行政区划工具,究竟会对地方政府行政管理支出产生何种影响,需要从理论和实证两个方面进行系统性的阐述。本研究基于手工整理2000—2006年《全国地市县财政统计资料》构成城市面板数据,依据是否实施撤县设区政策,将城市划分为处理组和对照组,采用多期双重差分法分析撤县设区对城市政府行政管理支出的影响,并就该影响的动态效应以及背后的具体作用机制进行检验。本文主要结论如下:(1)撤县设区政策可以约束城市政府行政管理支出的膨胀,这一结论在经过多种稳健性检验之后依然成立;(2)规模经济效应和机构精简效应是撤县设区影响城市政府行政管理成本的主要机制渠道;(3)基于动态效应的结果发现,在撤县设区政策实施后的第三年,城市政府的行政管理成本反而出现增加的现象;(4)撤县设区对地方政府行政管理支出的影响在东部和中西部之间,在晋升动机不同的官员之间,均存在差异。未来应当更加强调撤县设区内嵌于国家治理体系和治理能力现代化建设的内涵之中。

Administrative expenditures are the material basis for the existence of local governments at all levels and they provide the inputs necessary to deliver public services.They are also a major component of the administrative costs for local governments.Reducing administrative costs has long been a major goal of governance reform,in both China and abroad.Because administrative costs in China have been increasing,the issue of constraining the expansion of local government administrative costs has attracted the attention of both government and academia.As a major tool to reform the administrative structure and hierarchies of local governments,district-county mergers have had fiscal effects on local government expenditures.Because such mergers are a frequent administrative-district tool used by local governments,they should be examined systematically from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.Based on panel data of cities in the National Financial Statistics of Cities and Counties from 2000 to 2006,we divide the cities into treatment and control groups based on whether or not the district-county merger policy has been implemented,and we use the difference-in-difference method to analyze the impact of the district-county mergers on city government administrative expenditures and to examine the specific mechanisms behind these impacts.The results show that:1.The district-county merger policy constrains the expansion of city government administrative expenditures,but only in the short run;in the long run,after implementation of the district-county merger policy,the administrative costs of city governments have continued to increase.This conclusion holds under various robustness tests;2.Economies-of-scale effects and agency-streamlining effects are the main channels through which district-county mergers affect the administrative costs of city governments;3.Based on results from the dynamic effects,we find that the administrative costs of city governments increase in the third year after implementation of the district-county merger policy;4.The impact of the district-county mergers on local government administrative expenditures varies among the eastern,central,and western regions and also among officials with varying promotion incentives.Based on the above conclusions,this study suggests that:Future administrative divisions should be adjusted by optimizing the organizational structure of local governments.While scientifically adopting the policy of district-county mergers,it is also necessary to prevent the district-county mergers from causing an increase in administrative management costs,to actively explore how the policy of district-county mergers can reduce the unnecessary administrative expenses of local governments,and to convert the policy advantages of the district-county mergers into effective governance in the national administrative and financial management system.