破解全球贸易保护引致之谜:基于增加值转移视角

Unlocking the Induced Mystery of Global Trade Protection:A Study from the Perspective of Value-Added Transfer

本文基于增加值转移视角,从理论模拟和经验检验两个层面分析一国先后实施贸易保护之间的引致关系和原因。研究发现:美国反倾销会显著提升非涉案经济体对美国出口中来自涉案经济体涉案行业的增加值,存在贸易保护下增加值“迂回”转移效应;贸易保护的增加值转移效应既存在经济体内转移和跨经济体转移,也存在行业内转移和行业间转移;非涉案经济体对美国出口中来自反倾销经济体涉案行业的增加值上升会提高美国对其实施新贸易保护的概率,表现出先后实施贸易保护的引致关联,增加值转移是造成该引致关联的原因。本文对揭示全球价值链下贸易保护的实施规律具有重要意义。

Based on the perspective of value-added transfer, this paper studies the inducement effect on trade protection of the successive implementation of trade protection measures. The study indicates that US anti-dumping significantly increases the value-added of exports from non-involved economies to the US, which come from industries involved in economies targeted by the trade protection, and there is a “round-about” value-added transfer effect under trade protection. The value-added transfer effect of trade protection not only exists in domestic and cross-border transfers, but also in intra-and inter-industrial transfers. The increase in value-added of exports from non-involved economies to the US, which come from industries involved in anti-dumping target economies, increases the likelihood that the US will implement a new trade protection against them, demonstrating the relationship between the successive application of trade protection measures. The value-added transfer is the cause of the relationship. This study is of great significance in clarifying the implementation reasons of trade protection within the global value chain.