技术进步、经济周期与制造业岗位丢失

Technological Progress,Economic Cycle and Manufacturing Job Loss

自动化技术对就业的替代通常被认为是持续发生的,但事实并非如此。本文强调经济周期在技术进步影响劳动力市场过程中的作用,并从理论和经验两个方面,证实技术进步对制造业岗位的替代会集中发生在经济下行期。从理论机制上看,要发生自动化技术对人的替代,除了技术约束,还要满足价格约束。经济周期对工资和利率的冲击具有非对称性,使得价格约束往往只在经济下行期满足。计量分析显示,在中国经济下行期技术进步使制造业就业增速年均下降0.479个百分点,表明替代效应发挥了主导作用;而在经济上行期,技术进步使制造业就业增速年均上升0.037个百分点。经济下行期会出现更急剧的就业结构转型,意味着经济下行期的就业政策更需要找到经济效率和社会公平的平衡点。

In general, it is understood that human employment is gradually being replaced with automation, but in reality this is not the case. This paper highlights the importance of the role that the economic cycle plays in the process of technological progress affecting the labour market and confirms, both theoretically and empirically, that the replacement of manufacturing jobs due to technological progress mainly occurs in periods of economic downturn. From a theoretical point of view, the replacement effect occurs when automation technology already exists and its use is cheaper than the employment of workers. This second condition is normally met in periods of economic downturn due to the asymmetric impact of the economic cycle on wages and interest rates. Empirical results indicate that during a period of economic downturn in China, technological progress has been reducing the average annual growth rate of manufacturing employment by 0.479 percentage point, indicating that the replacement effect has been playing a key role;while during an economic upturn, technological progress causes the average annual growth rate of manufacturing employment to increase by 0.037 percentage point. The transformation of the employment structure is most pronounced during a period of economic downturn, which means that policymakers need to balance economic efficiency and social equity more cautiously.