信息不对称、资源配置效率与经济周期波动

Information Asymmetry,Resource Allocation Efficiency and Business Cycle Fluctuation

传统主流宏观经济模型未能有效重视信息不对称引发的金融资源错配现象,为实现“十四五”规划提出的“构建金融有效支持实体经济的体制机制”,迫切需要在理论层面深入研究企业与金融机构的异质性信息不对称导致部门间信贷资源错配的内在机制。本文基于风险转移视角,构建包含金融摩擦和企业异质性的动态随机一般均衡模型,探讨了信息不对称对中国金融资源配置效率和经济周期波动的影响。研究发现,受贷款人可获信息影响,不同规模企业的风险转移行为扭曲了要素相对价格,造成部门间资本边际产出分歧和信贷市场资源分配扭曲。在国际金融危机时期,政府对大企业的隐性担保会强化中小企业从事高风险活动的动机,加剧中小企业“融资难”现象,而政府给中小企业提供贷款担保能缓解信贷市场摩擦和资源错配。在风险冲击情况下,政府的直接消费措施对经济复苏作用短暂,而资金补贴措施则具有长期效果;但这两种财政措施均无法改善企业决策行为,仅是从资本品层面缓解了经济下行压力。风险转移和企业异质性的结合会放大货币、财政和风险冲击下的福利损失;不考虑资源错配的深层原因而仅从供给侧结构性改革入手则会冲击劳动力市场,导致失业率上升。本研究为中国金融市场化改革向纵深发展和完善新发展格局下的宏观经济调控政策提供了理论依据。

The traditional mainstream macroeconomic model fails to effectively pay attention to the misallocation of financial resources caused by information asymmetry.In order to realize the “constructing an effective mechanism for finance to effectively support the real economy” proposed in the 14 th Five-Year Plan, it is urgent to study the internal mechanism of the misallocation of credit resources between departments caused by heterogeneous information asymmetry between enterprises and financial institutions at the theoretical level.Based on the perspective of risk transfer, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including financial friction and firm heterogeneity, and explores the impact of information asymmetry on China’s financial resource allocation efficiency and business cycle fluctuations.The study found that, influenced by the information available to lenders, the risk transfer behavior of enterprises of different sizes distorted the relative prices of factors, resulting in differences in the marginal output of capital among sectors and distortions in the allocation of resources in the credit market.During the financial crisis, the government’s implicit guarantee to large enterprises will strengthen the motives of small and medium-sized enterprises to engage in high-risk activities, and exacerbate the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises.The government’s loan guarantee to small and medium-sized enterprises can alleviate the friction in the credit market and the misallocation of resources.Under the impact of risks, the government’s direct consumption measures have a short-term effect on economic recovery, while the financial subsidy measures have a long-term effect;however, neither of these two fiscal measures can improve the decision-making behavior of enterprises, and only relieve the downward pressure on the economy from the level of capital goods.The combination of risk shifting and firm heterogeneity will magnify welfare losses under monetary, fiscal and risk shocks;starting only with supply-side structural reforms without considering the underlying causes of resource misallocation will impact the labor market and lead to rising unemployment.This study provides a theoretical basis for China’s financial marketization reform to develop in depth and to improve macroeconomic control policies under the new development pattern.