关键技术的后发追赶与动态比较——基于人工智能技术生命周期的实证分析

Late Catch-up and Dynamic Comparison of Key Technologies:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Life Cycle of Artificial Intelligence

如何实现关键技术的后发追赶成为技术追赶领域的前沿问题。本文基于技术生命周期理论、RTA指数和机会窗口理论,对中国人工智能关键技术后发追赶阶段进入和追赶现状进行研究。研究发现:①在萌芽期—成长期,计算机视觉、自然语言处理和智适应学习技术依托需求型机会窗口则具有一定的技术优势,而未来在成长期—成熟期过程中将面临后发追赶的压力;②自主无人系统技术领先优势贯穿萌芽期—成长期—成熟期;③群体智能、跨媒体分析推理、脑机接口和智能芯片技术在整个技术生命周期中并不具备核心竞争力,未来将面临“一次追赶”或“二次追赶”的过程。在此基础上,从机会窗口的敏感度、需求优势、技术供给、举国体制等层面,总结提出关键技术的后发追赶路径。

How to achieve late catch-up of key technologies has become a frontier issue in the field of technology catch-up research.Therefore,based on technology life cycle theory,revealed technology advantage index and opportunity window theory,the current situation of catching up in the Chinese artificial intelligence key technologies is analyzed.The results show as follows.①From the very beginning to the growth period,computer vision,natural language processing and intelligent adaptive learning technologies have certain technical advantages due to seize demand-based windows of opportunity,while facing the pressure of catching up during the period from growth to maturity.②The technology leadership of autonomous unmanned systems runs through the Beginning-Growth-Maturity period.③Swarm intelligence,cross-media analysis and reasoning,brain-computer interface and smart chip technologies don't have core competitiveness in the whole technology life cycle and will face late catch-up once or twice in the future.Therefore,according to the sensitivity of the window of opportunity,demand advantages,technology supply and the new type of national system,the feasible suggestions for catching-up of key technologies are proposed.