长江模拟器的理论方法与实践探索

Theoretical method and practical exploration of Yangtze River Simulator construction

长江大保护是新时期国家重大战略之一。以水为纽带的长江经济带绿色发展面临诸多难题,如流域上、中、下游、左岸和右岸以及陆海统筹的系统治理,长江保护法实施的监管,变化环境下流域综合规划管理等。2019年提出了“长江模拟器”的构想,本文在此基础上系统总结了其概念和内涵,构建了长江模拟器的系统框架,即本质是以长江流域为对象,以流域水循环为纽带,将自然过程与人文过程相耦合而研发的流域模拟系统及科学装置。在明晰长江模拟器功能和应用、关键科学问题及学科需求等基础上,阐述了长江模拟器的理论体系,包括地球系统科学理论、经济社会科学理论、信息科学理论3大类;构架了长江模拟器的方法体系,包括5大类关键技术(智能感知技术、数据融合技术、计算支撑技术、应急处理技术和服务构建技术)、4大类主要方法(计算资源调配方法、数值模拟计算方法、人工智能模拟方法和优化决策调控方法);总结了长江模拟器面向6大方面的服务体系,即科技创新服务、综合治理服务、政府决策服务、应急管理服务、公众文化服务和数据应用服务。最后介绍了目前已开发的“长江模拟器1.0”应用实例。通过长江模拟器的建设,可为大江大河流域综合协调管理,也可为水利、环境保护、城市建设、农业、产业布局、自然灾害防御、公共事件防控等多个领域的科学管理与决策,提供重要的科学模拟与支撑工具,也为我国黄河和其它流域模拟器的研发提供借鉴与参考。

The protection of the Yangtze River is one of the most important national strategies in the new era.The green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt which linked by water is facing many problems in the systematic management of the upper-middle-lower reaches and the left-right banks of the basin,as well as the land-sea integration,the supervision of the implementation of the Yangtze River Protection Law,and the comprehensive planning and management of the river basin under changing environment.Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and National Natural Science Foundation of China,the idea of"Yangtze River Simulator"was proposed by the author's research team in 2019.This paper systematically summarizes the concept and connotation of the Yangtze River Simulator,and constructs its outline framework after a lot of work.It is believed that the essence of the Yangtze River Simulator is a river basin simulation system and scientific device developed by taking the Yangtze River Basin as the object and the water cycle of the basin as the link,coupling the natural process with the human process.On the basis of analyzing the functions,key scientific problems and subject requirements of the Yangtze River Simulator,the theoretical system of the Yangtze River Simulator construction is proposed,which mainly includes Earth System Science Theory,Economic and Social Science Theory,and Information Science Theory.The method system for the Yangtze River Simulator is constructed by incorporating five key technologies(intelligent perception technology,data fusion technology,computing support technology,emergency processing technology,service construction technology)and four main methods(computing resource allocation method,numerical simulation calculation method,artificial intelligence simulation method and optimization decision-making control method).In addition,the service system of the Yangtze River Simulator is summarized,which is oriented to six major services,namely scientific and technological innovation services,comprehensive management services,government decision-making services,emergency management services,public cultural services,and data application services.Finally,the application examples of the Yangtze River Simulator V1.0 that have been developed are introduced.The Yangtze River Simulator can provide important scientific simulation and support tools for scientific management and decision-making in many fields such as water conservancy,environmental protection,urban construction,agriculture,industrial layout,natural disaster prevention,and public incident prevention and control.It also provides reference for the research and development of river simulators in the Yellow River and other river basins in China.