财政政策、经济周期与企业盈利

Fiscal Policy,Business Cycle and Corporate Profitability

我国上市公司年度平均利润率在过去近20年中总体呈现波动下降趋势,且下降幅度高达53.62%。本文通过实证研究发现,这与政府在不同经济周期对财政收支政策的运用有很大关系。总体来看,在经济上行期,财政收入政策的正向变动会降低企业的盈利能力;而财政支出政策的正向变动会提高企业的盈利能力。在经济正常运行期,财政收入政策的正向变动会提高企业的盈利能力;而财政支出政策的正向变动会降低企业的盈利能力。在经济下行期,财政收入和支出政策的正向变动都会降低企业的盈利能力。此外,由于国有企业和民营企业在政企关系和盈余管理等方面存在较大差异,财政政策对两类企业盈利能力的影响存在显著差异。

The annual average profit rate of listed companies in China has shown a fluctuating decline in the past 20 years.The decline is as high as 53.62%.This article finds that this has a lot to do with the government's use of fiscal revenue and expenditure policies in differ-ent economic cycles.During the economic upturn,the positive changes in fiscal revenue policies will reduce the profitability of companies;while the positive changes in fiscal expenditure policies will increase the profitability of companies.During the normal period of the economy,the positive changes in fiscal revenue policies will increase the profitability of companies;while the positive changes in fiscal expenditure policies will reduce the profitability of companies.During the economic downturn,positive changes in fiscal revenue and expenditure policies will reduce the profitability of companies.In addition,due to the large differences between state-owned companies and private companies in terms of government-enterprise relations and earnings management,there are significant differences in the effects of fiscal policies on the profitability of the two types of companies.