企业技术创新短视行为的演化--基于前景理论的分析

The Evolution of Short-sighted Behavior of Enterprise Technological Innovation:Analysis based on Prospect Theory

企业技术创新短视行为是导致企业自主创新困境的重要原因之一。基于前景理论,通过将企业的参考点依赖、损失厌恶、风险偏好、主观预期等行为因素纳入到企业创新决策行为中,并基于演化博弈理论来系统性分析短视行为的内在机理及行为机制。演化结果表明:相较于传统演化博弈理论的收益矩阵而言,基于参考点的收益感知矩阵改变了企业对创新收益和风险感知的收益结构;企业对创新“收益”和“损失”的价值感知不同,从而会表现出强烈的损失厌恶行为;企业对创新环境的主观评估会改变其决策行为。基于此,研究建议通过设置相应的激励措施可以促进企业进行自主创新。

The short-sighted behavior of enterprise technological innovation is one of the important reasons leading to the dilemma of enterprise indigenous innovation.Based on prospect theory,by incorporating behavioral factors such as reference point dependence,loss aversion,risk preference,subjective expectations and other behavioral factors into the enterprise's innovative decision-making behavior,the internal mechanism of short-sighted behavior and its behavioral mechanism are systematically analyzed by evolutionary game theory.The analysis of the behavioral evolution results shows that:Compared with the traditional evolutionary game theory's payoff matrix,the payoff perception matrix based on the reference point changes the payoff structure of the enterprise's perception of payoff and risk;The value perception of gains and losses is different,so the enterprise will show a strong loss aversion behavior;The enterprise's subjective assessment of the innovation environment will change its decision-making behavior.Based on this,by setting corresponding behavioral incentive measures,enterprises can promote indigenous innovation.