基于智能情报挖掘的技术甄别发展现状及趋势预测研究

Research on Development Status and Trend Predict of Technology Identification Based on Intelligent Information Mining

科技评估是识别前瞻性技术、合理规划知识创造活动和促进科技创新的有效途径,对于辅助配置研发资源,提升国家现代化水平和综合国力具有战略意义。鉴于此,本文首先对科技评估任务中技术甄别相关的关键概念进行了辨析,梳理各国、各领域重点关注的热点技术、新兴技术、前沿技术和颠覆性技术的含义、特征、差异,总结具有代表性的研究成果;然后,以文献计量方法为基础,借助共词分析技术相关研究在数量、共词等方面的变化趋势,计算CDt指数识别其中的颠覆性成果;最后,通过生命周期曲线拟合方法对领域当前发展现状和未来变化趋势进行预测。本文对科技评估中技术甄别相关的概念归纳、采用的分析方法和相关结论能够为情报分析人员开辟新思路,对于不同领域开展科技评估和技术甄别工作提供参考。

Science and technology evaluation are effective approaches to detect forward-looking technologies and reasonably make creation activities plan to promote scientific and technological innovation,and have strategic significance for assisting the allocation of R&D resources and improving the level of national modernization and comprehensive national strength.In view of this,this study firstly discriminates the core concepts related to technology identification in science and technology foresight tasks.We sort out the scientific connotation,characteristics and differences of the most watched hot technologies,emerging technologies,frontier technologies and disruptive technologies,and summarize the representative researches.Secondly,based on the bibliometric,we adopt the co-words analysis the changing trend of related research in terms of quantity method and co-word analysis,and the widely used CDt index is calculated to identify the disruptive achievements.Finally,the current development status and future maturity of each theme are estimated using life cycle curve fitting method by us.The induction of key technology concepts,adopted analysis methods and relevant conclusions in this study could open up new ideas for information analysts.Furthermore,that would also provide reference for science and technology evaluation and technology identification task in different fields.